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Ice Lab

Tue, Mar 9, 2010·Wachovia Center, Philadelphia

New York Islanders 2, Philadelphia Flyers 3

Away

New York Islanders

2

Final

Home

Philadelphia Flyers

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 72% of the time.

PHI winsNYI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NYI1131507225
PHI014111210335

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:06NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Richard Park, Bruno Gervais · Tip-in, 0.27 xG1–0
  2. P2 10:27NYIKyle OkposoAssists: Josh Bailey, Bruno Gervais · Snap, 0.08 xG2–0
  3. P2 12:03PHIJeff CarterAssists: Daniel Brière, Kimmo Timonen · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
  4. P3 8:00PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Mike Richards, Chris Pronger · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–2
  5. P3 13:54PHISimon GagnePPGWGAssists: Claude Giroux, Matt Carle · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
  1. P1 18:00NYIJosh Bailey: Hooking2 min
  2. P2 1:04PHILukas Krajicek: Tripping2 min
  3. P3 7:24NYIMark Streit: Boarding2 min · PPG
  4. P3 8:00NYISean Bergenheim: High sticking2 min
  5. P3 12:32NYITrevor Gillies: Boarding2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NYI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHI
43% to win57% to win
← NYI attackPHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Richards
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NYIPHI
25Shots on goal35
1.6Expected goals2.8
50Shot attempts70
25Faceoffs won29
1Power plays4
8Penalty minutes2
24Hits22
23Blocked shots16
10Giveaways9
8Takeaways11

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHI 2.8 xGNYI 1.6 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHINYI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 67/100 · #383 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.64 · 5 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 15% (winner's lowest chance)
NYI 100%5050%50PHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +31 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 72% of the time.

PHI winsNYI wins

Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).