Skip to content
Ice Lab

Tue, Mar 9, 2010·Philips Arena, Atlanta

Nashville Predators 2, Atlanta Thrashers 1

Away

Nashville Predators

2

Final

Home

Atlanta Thrashers

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 54% of the time.

ATL winsNSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NSH21208012232
ATL0719015131

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:48NSHRyan SuterPPAssists: Jason Arnott, Martin Erat · Tip-in, 0.21 xG1–0
  2. P1 18:38NSHColin WilsonGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.26 xG2–0
  3. P2 0:29ATLNik AntropovAssists: Johnny Oduya, Niclas Bergfors · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–1
Penalties (4)
  1. P1 4:18ATLColby Armstrong: Interference2 min · PPG
  2. P1 12:23ATLMarty Reasoner: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  3. P3 5:45NSHFrancis Bouillon: Interference2 min
  4. P3 10:20NSHKevin Klein: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ATL
43% to win57% to win
← NSH attackATL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Antropov won the faceoff against Arnott
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NSHATL
32Shots on goal31
2.4Expected goals2.6
55Shot attempts56
24Faceoffs won24
2Power plays2
4Penalty minutes4
6Hits12
14Blocked shots12
5Giveaways11
9Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ATL 2.6 xGNSH 2.4 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ATLNSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 19/100 · #985 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.00 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
NSH 100%5050%50ATL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 54% of the time.

ATL winsNSH wins

Simulated goal difference (ATL − NSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).