Tue, Mar 9, 2010·Centre Bell, Montreal
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Montréal Canadiens 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 07 | 215 | 19 | 331 |
| MTL | 210 | 28 | 110 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:50MTLGlen MetropolitPPAssists: Scott Gomez, Jaroslav Spacek · Snap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 12:02MTLScott GomezUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 3:47TBLSteven StamkosPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 4:28MTLBenoit PouliotAssists: Scott Gomez · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–3
- P2 7:33MTLMathieu DarcheGWGAssists: Glen Metropolit, Andrei Markov · Tip-in, 0.22 xG1–4
- P2 10:03TBLMatt WalkerAssists: Mark Parrish, Stephane Veilleux · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–4
- P3 3:26MTLMathieu DarcheAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Andrei Markov · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–5
- P3 18:53TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Steven Stamkos, Kurtis Foster · Backhand, 0.04 xG3–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:49TBLTodd Fedoruk: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 2:43MTLRyan O'Byrne: Charging2 min · PPG
- P2 11:30MTLBen Maxwell: Interference2 min
- P2 19:43MTLRoman Hamrlik: Cross checking2 min
- P3 1:19TBLSteve Downie: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:48MTLTomas Plekanec: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lecavalier won the faceoff against Gomez
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).