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Ice Lab

Tue, Mar 9, 2010·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit

Calgary Flames 4, Detroit Red Wings 2

Away

Calgary Flames

4

Final

Home

Detroit Red Wings

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 59% of the time.

DET winsCGY wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CGY07110315432
DET01121504230

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 5:18CGYDaymond LangkowAssists: Ian White · Slap, 0.09 xG1–0
  2. P2 10:40DETPavel DatsyukAssists: Tomas Holmstrom, Brian Rafalski · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–1
  3. P2 16:29DETTomas HolmstromPPAssists: Nicklas Lidstrom, Brian Rafalski · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–2
  4. P3 5:45CGYJarome IginlaAssists: Rene Bourque, Matt Stajan · Backhand, 0.21 xG2–2
  5. P3 7:16CGYRene BourqueGWGAssists: Jarome Iginla, Robyn Regehr · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–2
  6. P3 19:15CGYChris HigginsENUnassisted · Slap, 0.45 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 15:41CGYJay Bouwmeester: Holding2 min
  2. P2 15:49CGYNiklas Hagman: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
  3. P2 17:33CGYIan White: Hooking2 min
  4. P3 8:46CGYSteve Staios: Hooking2 min
  5. P3 12:10DETTodd Bertuzzi: Slashing2 min
  6. P3 16:23DETBrian Rafalski: High sticking2 min
  7. P3 17:15CGYIan White: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CGY00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DET
43% to win57% to win
← CGY attackDET attack →
  1. P1 20:00Stajan won the faceoff against Datsyuk
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CGYDET
32Shots on goal30
2.6Expected goals2.1
57Shot attempts53
24Faceoffs won28
2Power plays5
10Penalty minutes4
32Hits35
15Blocked shots16
7Giveaways10
4Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DET 2.1 xGCGY 2.6 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DETCGY

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.

Excitement 56/100 · #541 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.67 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 21% (winner's lowest chance)
CGY 100%5050%50DET 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +29 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 59% of the time.

DET winsCGY wins

Simulated goal difference (DET − CGY), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).