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Ice Lab

Tue, Mar 9, 2010·Pepsi Center, Denver

Vancouver Canucks 6, Colorado Avalanche 4

Away

Vancouver Canucks

6

Final

Home

Colorado Avalanche

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 72% of the time.

COL winsVAN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
VAN0731639632
COL3101908427

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:17COLMatt DucheneAssists: Peter Mueller, Kyle Cumiskey · Wrist, 0.31 xG0–1
  2. P1 6:45COLChris StewartAssists: TJ Galiardi · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–2
  3. P1 13:26COLMatt DucheneAssists: Paul Stastny, Kyle Cumiskey · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–3
  4. P2 6:40VANMikael SamuelssonAssists: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–3
  5. P2 7:16COLPeter MuellerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–4
  6. P2 11:45VANMikael SamuelssonAssists: Christian Ehrhoff, Henrik Sedin · Backhand, 0.05 xG2–4
  7. P2 18:18VANMikael SamuelssonAssists: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–4
  8. P3 8:04VANAlexandre BurrowsPPAssists: Christian Ehrhoff, Ryan Kesler · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–4
  9. P3 17:52VANJannik HansenGWGAssists: Tanner Glass, Aaron Rome · Deflected, 0.36 xG5–4
  10. P3 19:51VANDaniel SedinENAssists: Mikael Samuelsson, Ryan Kesler · Backhand, 0.65 xG6–4
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 6:51COLChris Durno: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 6:51VANRick Rypien: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 12:24VANAlexander Edler: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  4. P2 14:02COLChris Durno: Interference2 min
  5. P3 6:26COLTJ Galiardi: Tripping2 min · PPG
  6. P3 11:49VANMikael Samuelsson: Hooking2 min
  7. P3 12:11COLMatt Duchene: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

VAN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0COL
43% to win57% to win
← VAN attackCOL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Stastny
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

VANCOL
32Shots on goal27
3.3Expected goals2.1
65Shot attempts38
31Faceoffs won23
3Power plays2
9Penalty minutes11
29Hits24
10Blocked shots17
6Giveaways13
4Takeaways12

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

COL 2.1 xGVAN 3.3 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

COLVAN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 95/100 · #52 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.79 · 10 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 5% (winner's lowest chance)
VAN 100%5050%50COL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +43 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 72% of the time.

COL winsVAN wins

Simulated goal difference (COL − VAN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).