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Ice Lab

Tue, Mar 9, 2010·Rexall Place, Edmonton

Ottawa Senators 4, Edmonton Oilers 1

Away

Ottawa Senators

4

Final

Home

Edmonton Oilers

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 83% of the time.

EDM winsOTT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
OTT013112314439
EDM071804119

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 4:27EDMFernando PisaniAssists: Aaron Johnson, Shawn Horcoff · Snap, 0.32 xG0–1
  2. P2 16:18OTTChris KellyAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
  3. P3 8:24OTTMatt CullenPPGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson, Daniel Alfredsson · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
  4. P3 9:50OTTMike FisherAssists: Chris Kelly, Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.04 xG3–1
  5. P3 13:09OTTMilan MichalekPPAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–1
Penalties (16)
  1. P1 9:08EDMRyan Potulny: Holding2 min
  2. P1 10:30EDMRyan Whitney: Cross checking2 min
  3. P1 14:35OTTMatt Carkner: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 14:35EDMZack Stortini: Instigator2 min
  5. P1 14:35EDMZack Stortini: Fighting5 min
  6. P1 14:35EDMZack Stortini: Misconduct10 min
  7. P1 16:33OTTDaniel Alfredsson: Hooking2 min
  8. P1 17:43OTTBrian Lee: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
  9. P1 18:33EDMShawn Horcoff: Boarding2 min
  10. P2 17:57OTTPeter Regin: Boarding2 min
  11. P2 19:00EDMGilbert Brule: Tripping2 min
  12. P3 7:50EDMMarc-Antoine Pouliot: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
  13. P3 11:14EDMTheo Peckham: Hooking2 min · PPG
  14. P3 13:01EDMRyan Whitney: Cross checking2 min
  15. P3 14:56OTTJarkko Ruutu: Roughing2 min
  16. P3 15:42EDMMike Comrie: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

OTT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0EDM
43% to win57% to win
← OTT attackEDM attack →
  1. P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Horcoff
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

OTTEDM
39Shots on goal19
4.1Expected goals2.0
73Shot attempts30
34Faceoffs won34
9Power plays4
11Penalty minutes33
17Hits15
5Blocked shots20
10Giveaways26
7Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

EDM 2.0 xGOTT 4.1 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

EDMOTT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 37/100 · #780 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.23 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 25% (winner's lowest chance)
OTT 100%5050%50EDM 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +27 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 83% of the time.

EDM winsOTT wins

Simulated goal difference (EDM − OTT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).