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Ice Lab

Wed, Mar 10, 2010·Verizon Center, Washington

Carolina Hurricanes 3, Washington Capitals 4 (OT)

Away

Carolina Hurricanes

3

Final

Overtime

Home

Washington Capitals

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 69% of the time.

WSH winsCAR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
CAR1112801002331
WSH21211001314439

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:24WSHAlexander SeminAssists: Brendan Morrison, John Carlson · Backhand, 0.16 xG0–1
  2. P1 17:59WSHMike GreenPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
  3. P1 18:17CARPatrick DwyerAssists: Tom Kostopoulos, Jay Harrison · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–2
  4. P2 8:43CARTuomo RuutuAssists: Chad LaRose · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
  5. P2 11:02WSHMike GreenPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Brooks Laich · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
  6. P2 15:03CARJussi JokinenPPAssists: Tuomo Ruutu, Joni Pitkanen · Snap, 0.07 xG3–3
  7. OT 3:20WSHTomas FleischmannGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 5:57WSHTomas Fleischmann: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 8:59WSHDavid Steckel: Holding2 min
  3. P1 10:25CARSergei Samsonov: Hooking2 min
  4. P1 17:04CARAlexandre Picard: Hooking2 min · PPG
  5. P2 0:48CARBrett Carson: Holding2 min
  6. P2 9:41CARAlexandre Picard: Tripping2 min · PPG
  7. P2 14:01WSHScott Walker: Clipping2 min · PPG
  8. P2 19:16WSHJoe Corvo: Interference2 min
  9. P3 3:17WSHAlexander Semin: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CAR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0WSH
43% to win57% to win
← CAR attackWSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Belanger won the faceoff against Staal
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CARWSH
31Shots on goal39
3.2Expected goals4.5
54Shot attempts80
28Faceoffs won35
5Power plays4
8Penalty minutes10
29Hits24
23Blocked shots11
5Giveaways12
3Takeaways12

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

WSH 4.5 xGCAR 3.2 xG
012345P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

WSHCAR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 78/100 · #234 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.85 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 50% (winner's lowest chance)
CAR 100%5050%50WSH 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +22 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 69% of the time.

WSH winsCAR wins

Simulated goal difference (WSH − CAR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).