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Ice Lab

Wed, Mar 10, 2010·United Center, Chicago

Los Angeles Kings 2, Chicago Blackhawks 3 (OT)

Away

Los Angeles Kings

2

Final

Overtime

Home

Chicago Blackhawks

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 80% of the time.

CHI winsLAK wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
LAK0621401000230
CHI11311601113343

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:34CHIPatrick SharpAssists: Adam Burish, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
  2. P2 4:58LAKDustin BrownAssists: Sean O'Donnell, Anze Kopitar · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG1–1
  3. P2 6:50LAKAnze KopitarPPAssists: Drew Doughty, Jarret Stoll · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
  4. P2 8:25CHIKris VersteegAssists: Andrew Ladd, John Madden · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–2
  5. OT 2:08CHIPatrick SharpGWGAssists: Dave Bolland · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 2:54LAKRich Clune: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 2:54CHIAdam Burish: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 10:05LAKWayne Simmonds: Slashing2 min
  4. P1 10:24LAKSean O'Donnell: Cross checking2 min
  5. P1 19:40CHIBrent Sopel: Holding2 min
  6. P2 2:12LAKWayne Simmonds: Too many men on the ice2 min
  7. P2 5:49CHIJonathan Toews: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
  8. P3 17:23LAKDustin Brown: Fighting5 min
  9. P3 17:23CHITroy Brouwer: Fighting5 min
  10. P3 18:37LAKWayne Simmonds: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

LAK00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CHI
43% to win57% to win
← LAK attackCHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Madden won the faceoff against Handzus
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

LAKCHI
30Shots on goal43
2.4Expected goals4.4
48Shot attempts74
30Faceoffs won34
2Power plays4
18Penalty minutes14
23Hits17
18Blocked shots13
1Giveaways8
8Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CHI 4.4 xGLAK 2.4 xG
012345P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CHILAK

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.

Excitement 50/100 · #598 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.64 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 33% (winner's lowest chance)
LAK 100%5050%50CHI 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +21 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 80% of the time.

CHI winsLAK wins

Simulated goal difference (CHI − LAK), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).