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Ice Lab

Wed, Mar 10, 2010·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale

Vancouver Canucks 3, Phoenix Coyotes 4 (SO)

Away

Vancouver Canucks

3

Final

Shootout

Home

Phoenix Coyotes

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 69% of the time.

PHX winsVAN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
VAN11319111063339
PHX11211118034434

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 10:16PHXLee StempniakAssists: Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
  2. P1 19:14VANHenrik SedinAssists: Mikael Samuelsson, Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–1
  3. P2 0:36VANMikael SamuelssonAssists: Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
  4. P2 9:39PHXTaylor PyattAssists: Vernon Fiddler, Zbynek Michalek · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–2
  5. P3 0:35PHXLee StempniakAssists: Vernon Fiddler, Taylor Pyatt · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–3
  6. P3 1:34VANChristian EhrhoffAssists: Pavol Demitra, Ryan Kesler · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. PHX Wojtek Wolski stopped
  2. 2. VAN Pavol Demitra stopped
  3. 3. PHX Lauri Korpikoski stopped
  4. 4. VAN Kyle Wellwood scored
  5. 5. PHX Radim Vrbata scored
  6. 6. VAN Mikael Samuelsson stopped
  7. 7. PHX Lee Stempniak scored
  8. 8. VAN Alexandre Burrows scored
  9. 9. PHX Shane Doan scored
  10. 10. VAN Ryan Kesler scored
  11. 11. PHX Adrian Aucoin scored
  12. 12. VAN Mason Raymond stopped
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 1:56PHXWojtek Wolski: Interference2 min
  2. P1 3:51VANMikael Samuelsson: Slashing2 min
  3. P1 3:51PHXJim Vandermeer: Cross checking2 min
  4. P1 10:53VANHenrik Sedin: Holding2 min
  5. P1 13:07PHXMartin Hanzal: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 1:38PHXWojtek Wolski: Holding2 min
  7. P2 2:57VANAndrew Raycroft: Holding the stick2 min
  8. P2 14:05PHXLauri Korpikoski: Holding2 min
  9. P3 3:20PHXVernon Fiddler: Roughing2 min
  10. P3 3:20VANAlexandre Burrows: Roughing2 min
  11. P3 11:17VANAlexandre Burrows: Holding the stick2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

VAN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHX
43% to win57% to win
← VAN attackPHX attack →
  1. P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Sedin
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

VANPHX
39Shots on goal34
4.0Expected goals2.8
78Shot attempts47
35Faceoffs won32
4Power plays3
10Penalty minutes12
18Hits29
3Blocked shots17
5Giveaways6
1Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHX 2.8 xGVAN 4.0 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHXVAN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 79/100 · #225 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.11 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 32% (winner's lowest chance)
VAN 100%5050%50PHX 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +25 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 69% of the time.

PHX winsVAN wins

Simulated goal difference (PHX − VAN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).