Skip to content
Ice Lab

Thu, Mar 11, 2010·Air Canada Centre, Toronto

Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 4 (OT)

Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

3

Final

Overtime

Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 55% of the time.

TOR winsTBL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
TBL114171903333
TOR0921111315438

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 18:17TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Kurtis Foster, Vincent Lecavalier · Snap, 0.28 xG1–0
  2. P2 9:29TORViktor StalbergAssists: Luca Caputi, Luke Schenn · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
  3. P2 16:17TORViktor StalbergAssists: Luca Caputi · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
  4. P2 16:41TBLKurtis FosterAssists: Steven Stamkos, Martin St. Louis · Slap, 0.06 xG2–2
  5. P3 3:37TORTyler BozakAssists: Phil Kessel, Nikolay Kulemin · Snap, 0.10 xG2–3
  6. P3 5:00TBLSteve DownieAssists: Mike Lundin, Martin St. Louis · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–3
  7. OT 3:33TORPhil KesselGWGAssists: Tyler Bozak · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 5:13TORCarl Gunnarsson: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 17:36TORDion Phaneuf: Interference2 min · PPG
  3. P2 11:38TBLSteve Downie: Slashing2 min
  4. P2 18:03TBLSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
  5. P2 18:03TORDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
  6. P3 13:04TBLMike Lundin: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TBL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TOR
43% to win57% to win
← TBL attackTOR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Stamkos won the faceoff against Bozak
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TBLTOR
33Shots on goal38
2.8Expected goals3.1
61Shot attempts79
24Faceoffs won34
2Power plays2
6Penalty minutes6
25Hits23
24Blocked shots12
15Giveaways10
8Takeaways11

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TOR 3.1 xGTBL 2.8 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TORTBL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 82/100 · #187 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.15 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 33% (winner's lowest chance)
TBL 100%5050%50TOR 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +26 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 55% of the time.

TOR winsTBL wins

Simulated goal difference (TOR − TBL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).