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Ice Lab

Thu, Mar 11, 2010·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale

St. Louis Blues 2, New York Islanders 1 (SO)

Away

St. Louis Blues

2

Final

Shootout

Home

New York Islanders

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 72% of the time.

NYI winsSTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
STL011110010052236
NYI16011011020130

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 19:50NYIMatt MoulsonPPAssists: Mark Streit, Blake Comeau · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
  2. P2 6:24STLPatrik BerglundPPAssists: Andy McDonald, Alexander Steen · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1

Shootout

  1. 1. NYI Frans Nielsen stopped
  2. 2. STL T.J. Oshie scored
  3. 3. NYI Matt Moulson stopped
  4. 4. STL Brad Boyes scored
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 17:53STLMatt D'Agostini: Boarding2 min · PPG
  2. P2 5:02NYITim Jackman: Hooking2 min · PPG
  3. P2 7:21STLBrad Winchester: High sticking2 min
  4. P2 10:39NYIJon Sim: Slashing2 min
  5. P2 11:34STLBrad Boyes: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 18:47NYIDoug Weight: Boarding2 min
  7. P3 3:29STLDavid Perron: Tripping2 min
  8. P3 6:59NYIRichard Park: Cross checking2 min
  9. P3 12:13NYIJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min
  10. P3 18:20NYIRichard Park: High sticking2 min
  11. OT 2:34STLBarret Jackman: Boarding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

STL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NYI
43% to win57% to win
← STL attackNYI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against McClement
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

STLNYI
36Shots on goal30
4.7Expected goals3.2
69Shot attempts60
25Faceoffs won34
6Power plays5
10Penalty minutes12
21Hits19
17Blocked shots19
8Giveaways18
18Takeaways22

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NYI 3.2 xGSTL 4.7 xG
012345P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NYISTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 53/100 · #568 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.65 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 27% (winner's lowest chance)
STL 100%5050%50NYI 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +19 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 72% of the time.

NYI winsSTL wins

Simulated goal difference (NYI − STL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).