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Ice Lab

Thu, Mar 11, 2010·Wachovia Center, Philadelphia

Boston Bruins 5, Philadelphia Flyers 1

Away

Boston Bruins

5

Final

Home

Philadelphia Flyers

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 53% of the time.

PHI winsBOS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
BOS113314110537
PHI0911409132

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 13:15BOSBlake WheelerAssists: David Krejci · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–0
  2. P2 0:44PHIJeff CarterPPAssists: Scott Hartnell · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
  3. P2 4:37BOSMark RecchiGWGAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Dennis Seidenberg · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
  4. P2 10:30BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Marco Sturm, Matt Hunwick · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–1
  5. P2 11:16BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Michael Ryder, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–1
  6. P3 12:35BOSMarco SturmAssists: Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.23 xG5–1
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 14:02BOSMark Stuart: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 14:02PHIDaniel Carcillo: Fighting5 min
  3. P2 0:40BOSDennis Seidenberg: Boarding2 min · PPG
  4. P2 7:41PHIIan Laperriere: Fighting5 min
  5. P2 7:41BOSMark Stuart: Fighting5 min
  6. P3 1:42PHIDaniel Brière: Hooking2 min
  7. P3 12:20BOSMatt Hunwick: Roughing2 min
  8. P3 12:20PHIDaniel Carcillo: Roughing2 min
  9. P3 12:20PHIDaniel Carcillo: Misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BOS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHI
43% to win57% to win
← BOS attackPHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Richards
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BOSPHI
37Shots on goal32
2.6Expected goals2.8
62Shot attempts54
30Faceoffs won29
1Power plays1
14Penalty minutes24
21Hits31
14Blocked shots21
2Giveaways12
6Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHI 2.8 xGBOS 2.6 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHIBOS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 28/100 · #900 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.94 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
BOS 100%5050%50PHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +20 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 53% of the time.

PHI winsBOS wins

Simulated goal difference (PHI − BOS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).