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Ice Lab

Thu, Mar 11, 2010·RBC Center, Raleigh

Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Carolina Hurricanes 4 (OT)

Away

Pittsburgh Penguins

3

Final

Overtime

Home

Carolina Hurricanes

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 87% of the time.

CAR winsPIT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
PIT2911601401340
CAR26170711421

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:04PITJordan StaalAssists: Pascal Dupuis, Mark Eaton · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
  2. P1 5:29PITBill GuerinPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–0
  3. P1 7:45CARRay WhitneyPPAssists: Joni Pitkanen, Brian Pothier · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
  4. P1 9:11CARZach BoychukUnassisted · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–2
  5. P2 2:09CAREric StaalAssists: Erik Cole · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
  6. P2 6:00PITMatt CookeAssists: Pascal Dupuis, Alex Goligoski · Backhand, 0.07 xG3–3
  7. OT 0:23CARBrian PothierGWGAssists: Ray Whitney, Eric Staal · Snap, 0.06 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 4:50CARPatrick Dwyer: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
  2. P1 7:35PITSergei Gonchar: Boarding2 min · PPG
  3. P1 19:05PITMax Talbot: Holding2 min
  4. P2 15:38PITMark Eaton: Interference2 min
  5. P2 15:59PITSergei Gonchar: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  6. P3 8:29CARTuomo Ruutu: Interference goalkeeper2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PIT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CAR
43% to win57% to win
← PIT attackCAR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Crosby
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PITCAR
40Shots on goal21
4.0Expected goals1.6
75Shot attempts30
24Faceoffs won38
2Power plays4
8Penalty minutes4
24Hits35
4Blocked shots16
2Giveaways12
6Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CAR 1.6 xGPIT 4.0 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CARPIT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 74/100 · #279 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.73 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 26% (winner's lowest chance)
PIT 100%5050%50CAR 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +19 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 87% of the time.

CAR winsPIT wins

Simulated goal difference (CAR − PIT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).