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Ice Lab

Thu, Mar 11, 2010·Nationwide Arena, Columbus

Atlanta Thrashers 1, Columbus Blue Jackets 2

Away

Atlanta Thrashers

1

Final

Home

Columbus Blue Jackets

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 51% of the time.

CBJ winsATL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ATL0804117129
CBJ1121801221

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:36CBJR.J. UmbergerPPAssists: Kristian Huselius, Fedor Tyutin · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
  2. P2 15:25CBJKristian HuseliusGWGAssists: Kris Russell, Derek Dorsett · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
  3. P3 17:39ATLJohnny OduyaAssists: Vyacheslav Kozlov · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 5:13ATLNik Antropov: Interference2 min · PPG
  2. P1 17:04ATLZach Bogosian: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 0:48CBJJakub Voracek: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 10:45ATLRon Hainsey: Tripping2 min
  5. P2 18:36ATLNik Antropov: Cross checking2 min
  6. P2 18:36CBJJared Boll: Roughing2 min
  7. P3 7:00ATLVyacheslav Kozlov: Slashing2 min
  8. P3 18:35CBJJan Hejda: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ATL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CBJ
43% to win57% to win
← ATL attackCBJ attack →
  1. P1 20:00White won the faceoff against Brassard
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ATLCBJ
29Shots on goal21
1.8Expected goals1.6
52Shot attempts38
20Faceoffs won25
2Power plays4
10Penalty minutes6
32Hits30
13Blocked shots11
3Giveaways1
3Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CBJ 1.6 xGATL 1.8 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CBJATL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 12/100 · #1077 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.73 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
ATL 100%5050%50CBJ 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 51% of the time.

CBJ winsATL wins

Simulated goal difference (CBJ − ATL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).