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Ice Lab

Thu, Mar 11, 2010·Centre Bell, Montreal

Edmonton Oilers 4, Montréal Canadiens 5 (SO)

Away

Edmonton Oilers

4

Final

Shootout

Home

Montréal Canadiens

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 54% of the time.

MTL winsEDM wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
EDM2905210010425
MTL291917011526

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:20MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Andrei Kostitsyn, Andrei Markov · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
  2. P1 2:22EDMRobert NilssonAssists: Ryan Potulny, Tom Gilbert · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
  3. P1 3:43EDMSam GagnerPPAssists: Chris Minard, Tom Gilbert · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
  4. P1 9:45MTLBrian GiontaAssists: Andrei Markov, Benoit Pouliot · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–2
  5. P2 15:25MTLTravis MoenAssists: Dominic Moore, Sergei Kostitsyn · Wrist, 0.41 xG2–3
  6. P3 0:32EDMAndrew CoglianoAssists: Dustin Penner, Gilbert Brule · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–3
  7. P3 8:05MTLSergei KostitsynUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–4
  8. P3 9:19EDMShawn HorcoffAssists: Fernando Pisani, Mike Comrie · Slap, 0.04 xG4–4

Shootout

  1. 1. MTL Tomas Plekanec stopped
  2. 2. EDM Ryan Potulny stopped
  3. 3. MTL Scott Gomez stopped
  4. 4. EDM Shawn Horcoff stopped
  5. 5. MTL Brian Gionta stopped
  6. 6. EDM Gilbert Brule stopped
  7. 7. MTL Benoit Pouliot stopped
  8. 8. EDM Robert Nilsson stopped
  9. 9. MTL Andrei Kostitsyn scored
  10. 10. EDM Sam Gagner stopped
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 3:29MTLBenoit Pouliot: Holding2 min · PPG
  2. P1 17:45EDMTom Gilbert: Interference2 min
  3. P2 9:04MTLTravis Moen: Too many men on the ice2 min
  4. P2 11:53EDMTheo Peckham: Holding the stick2 min
  5. P2 15:50EDMTheo Peckham: Holding2 min
  6. P3 1:16EDMSam Gagner: High sticking2 min
  7. P3 1:59EDMShawn Horcoff: Tripping2 min
  8. P3 10:42MTLAndrei Markov: Hooking2 min
  9. P3 19:43EDMRobert Nilsson: Too many men on the ice2 min
  10. OT 3:28EDMAndrew Cogliano: Holding2 min
  11. OT 4:14MTLTomas Plekanec: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

EDM00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MTL
43% to win57% to win
← EDM attackMTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Gomez won the faceoff against Cogliano
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

EDMMTL
25Shots on goal26
3.7Expected goals3.5
44Shot attempts57
24Faceoffs won27
3Power plays7
14Penalty minutes8
21Hits18
15Blocked shots8
5Giveaways2
6Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MTL 3.5 xGEDM 3.7 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MTLEDM

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.

Excitement 94/100 · #58 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.55 · 8 goals in reachComeback index 40% (winner's lowest chance)
EDM 100%5050%50MTL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +29 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 54% of the time.

MTL winsEDM wins

Simulated goal difference (MTL − EDM), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).