Skip to content
Ice Lab

Thu, Mar 11, 2010·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit

Minnesota Wild 1, Detroit Red Wings 5

Away

Minnesota Wild

1

Final

Home

Detroit Red Wings

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 73% of the time.

DET winsMIN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
MIN1130405122
DET31211018530

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:25DETJohan FranzenAssists: Brett Lebda, Tomas Holmstrom · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
  2. P1 9:19DETTomas HolmstromPPGWGAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Nicklas Lidstrom · Deflected, 0.02 xG0–2
  3. P1 10:15DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Patrick Eaves, Kris Draper · Snap, 0.41 xG0–3
  4. P1 19:49MINAndrew EbbettAssists: Martin Havlat, Marek Zidlicky · Deflected, 0.01 xG1–3
  5. P2 12:58DETDrew MillerSHAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Niklas Kronwall · Deflected, 0.20 xG1–4
  6. P3 14:43DETJohan FranzenAssists: Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–5
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 3:59DETAndreas Lilja: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 4:20MINMikko Koivu: Interference2 min
  3. P1 8:29MINMikko Koivu: Hooking2 min · PPG
  4. P1 17:12MINMarek Zidlicky: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  5. P2 11:27DETBrian Rafalski: High sticking2 min
  6. P2 16:25MINJames Sheppard: High sticking2 min
  7. P3 1:51DETJohan Franzen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  8. P3 5:05MINKyle Brodziak: Slashing2 min
  9. P3 10:48MINAndrew Brunette: Interference2 min
  10. P3 12:14DETValtteri Filppula: Hooking2 min
  11. P3 17:35DETTodd Bertuzzi: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MIN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DET
43% to win57% to win
← MIN attackDET attack →
  1. P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Koivu
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MINDET
22Shots on goal30
1.8Expected goals3.0
40Shot attempts56
31Faceoffs won28
5Power plays6
12Penalty minutes10
23Hits22
14Blocked shots6
4Giveaways8
3Takeaways11

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DET 3.0 xGMIN 1.8 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DETMIN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 22/100 · #937 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.63 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
MIN 100%5050%50DET 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +14 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 73% of the time.

DET winsMIN wins

Simulated goal difference (DET − MIN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).