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Ice Lab

Thu, Mar 11, 2010·Pepsi Center, Denver

Florida Panthers 0, Colorado Avalanche 3

Away

Florida Panthers

0

Final

Home

Colorado Avalanche

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 69% of the time.

COL winsFLA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
FLA0707013027
COL010211110331

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 4:59COLPaul StastnyGWGAssists: Brett Clark, Chris Stewart · Backhand, 0.27 xG0–1
  2. P2 15:21COLPaul StastnyPPAssists: Chris Stewart, Peter Mueller · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
  3. P3 16:25COLMatt HendricksUnassisted · Backhand, 0.16 xG0–3
Penalties (5)
  1. P1 7:05COLTJ Galiardi: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 16:13COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 16:13FLAGregory Campbell: Fighting5 min
  4. P2 13:20FLACory Stillman: Too many men on the ice2 min
  5. P2 15:07FLARadek Dvorak: Roughing2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

FLA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0COL
43% to win57% to win
← FLA attackCOL attack →
  1. P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Matthias
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

FLACOL
27Shots on goal31
1.3Expected goals2.1
49Shot attempts66
31Faceoffs won26
1Power plays2
9Penalty minutes7
22Hits20
27Blocked shots15
9Giveaways17
8Takeaways20

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

COL 2.1 xGFLA 1.3 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

COLFLA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 3/100 · #1182 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.54 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 54% (winner's lowest chance)
FLA 100%5050%50COL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +19 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 69% of the time.

COL winsFLA wins

Simulated goal difference (COL − FLA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).