Skip to content
Ice Lab

Thu, Mar 11, 2010·Pengrowth Saddledome, Calgary

Ottawa Senators 0, Calgary Flames 2

Away

Ottawa Senators

0

Final

Home

Calgary Flames

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 51% of the time.

CGY winsOTT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
OTT04012017033
CGY1401219225

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:29CGYJamal MayersGWGAssists: Curtis Glencross, Eric Nystrom · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
  2. P3 9:05CGYChris HigginsAssists: Ian White · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 2:27OTTMatt Cullen: High sticking2 min
  2. P1 7:02CGYSteve Staios: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 14:41CGYCurtis Glencross: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 5:25CGYCraig Conroy: Slashing2 min
  5. P2 17:09CGYRene Bourque: Tripping2 min
  6. P3 2:30CGYMark Giordano: Cross checking2 min
  7. P3 5:11OTTJarkko Ruutu: Roughing2 min
  8. P3 18:25OTTDaniel Alfredsson: Hooking2 min
  9. P3 19:27CGYRene Bourque: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

OTT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CGY
43% to win57% to win
← OTT attackCGY attack →
  1. P1 20:00Stajan won the faceoff against Spezza
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

OTTCGY
33Shots on goal25
1.6Expected goals1.6
75Shot attempts46
36Faceoffs won24
5Power plays3
6Penalty minutes12
15Hits20
10Blocked shots30
8Giveaways4
4Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CGY 1.6 xGOTT 1.6 xG
00.511.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CGYOTT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 8/100 · #1138 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.70 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
OTT 100%5050%50CGY 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 51% of the time.

CGY winsOTT wins

Simulated goal difference (CGY − OTT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).