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Ice Lab

Fri, Mar 12, 2010·Prudential Center, Newark

Pittsburgh Penguins 1, New Jersey Devils 3

Away

Pittsburgh Penguins

1

Final

Home

New Jersey Devils

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 51% of the time.

NJD winsPIT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PIT11307014134
NJD1801925332

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:43NJDPatrik EliasAssists: Andy Greene, Ilya Kovalchuk · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
  2. P1 2:25PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Chris Kunitz, Pascal Dupuis · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
  3. P3 2:06NJDAndy GreeneGWGAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Bryce Salvador · Slap, 0.11 xG1–2
  4. P3 9:59NJDIlya KovalchukAssists: Dainius Zubrus, Travis Zajac · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
Penalties (21)
  1. P1 3:38NJDMartin Skoula: Holding2 min
  2. P1 18:13PITRuslan Fedotenko: Tripping2 min
  3. P1 18:33NJDJamie Langenbrunner: Interference2 min
  4. P2 1:37PITKris Letang: Holding2 min
  5. P2 4:10PITCraig Adams: Charging5 min
  6. P2 4:10PITCraig Adams: Game misconduct10 min
  7. P2 11:53PITMike Rupp: Slashing2 min
  8. P2 13:26PITKris Letang: Roughing2 min
  9. P2 13:26NJDDainius Zubrus: Roughing2 min
  10. P2 15:24PITEvgeni Malkin: Interference2 min
  11. P2 15:24NJDColin White: Misconduct10 min
  12. P2 15:24NJDRob Niedermayer: Cross checking2 min
  13. P2 15:24PITRuslan Fedotenko: Misconduct10 min
  14. P2 15:24NJDRob Niedermayer: Roughing2 min
  15. P2 18:11PITKris Letang: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
  16. P3 0:03NJDRob Niedermayer: Fighting5 min
  17. P3 0:03PITMatt Cooke: Fighting5 min
  18. P3 5:56PITChris Kunitz: Slashing2 min
  19. P3 5:56NJDJamie Langenbrunner: Roughing2 min
  20. P3 5:56NJDJamie Langenbrunner: High sticking2 min
  21. P3 14:33NJDMike Mottau: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PIT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NJD
43% to win57% to win
← PIT attackNJD attack →
  1. P1 20:00Niedermayer won the faceoff against Staal
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PITNJD
34Shots on goal32
2.7Expected goals2.8
58Shot attempts54
26Faceoffs won25
5Power plays4
42Penalty minutes31
18Hits24
10Blocked shots16
2Giveaways8
4Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NJD 2.8 xGPIT 2.7 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NJDPIT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 31/100 · #862 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.14 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 51% (winner's lowest chance)
PIT 100%5050%50NJD 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +25 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 51% of the time.

NJD winsPIT wins

Simulated goal difference (NJD − PIT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).