Fri, Mar 12, 2010·HSBC Arena, Buffalo
Minnesota Wild 3, Buffalo Sabres 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 215 | 110 | 08 | 333 |
| BUF | 015 | 012 | 218 | 245 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:02MINAndrew EbbettPPAssists: Marek Zidlicky, Josh Harding · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 10:11MINGuillaume LatendresseUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 18:35MINAndrew BrunetteGWGAssists: Antti Miettinen · Tip-in, 0.20 xG3–0
- P3 3:42BUFThomas VanekPPAssists: Derek Roy, Jason Pominville · Slap, 0.21 xG3–1
- P3 18:02BUFThomas VanekAssists: Jason Pominville, Jochen Hecht · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:01BUFDerek Roy: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 7:17MINJames Sheppard: Holding2 min
- P1 15:42MINOwen Nolan: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:42BUFSteve Montador: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:14MINAntti Miettinen: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:50MINNick Schultz: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:20BUFAdam Mair: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:20MINAndrew Ebbett: Interference2 min
- P2 14:37MINJohn Scott: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:49BUFMark Mancari: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:56MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 5:46MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mair won the faceoff against Brodziak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).