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Ice Lab

Fri, Mar 12, 2010·American Airlines Center, Dallas

Los Angeles Kings 2, Dallas Stars 1 (SO)

Away

Los Angeles Kings

2

Final

Shootout

Home

Dallas Stars

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 57% of the time.

DAL winsLAK wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
LAK11106010011228
DAL01101016030130

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 19:25LAKFreddy ModinPPAssists: Dustin Brown, Alex Frolov · Deflected, 0.21 xG1–0
  2. P3 6:29DALBrenden MorrowAssists: Stephane Robidas, Mike Modano · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1

Shootout

  1. 1. DAL Brad Richards stopped
  2. 2. LAK Anze Kopitar stopped
  3. 3. DAL Loui Eriksson stopped
  4. 4. LAK Jack Johnson stopped
  5. 5. DAL Jere Lehtinen stopped
  6. 6. LAK Dustin Brown stopped
  7. 7. DAL Mike Ribeiro stopped
  8. 8. LAK Ryan Smyth stopped
  9. 9. DAL Mike Modano stopped
  10. 10. LAK Michal Handzus stopped
  11. 11. DAL Jamie Benn stopped
  12. 12. LAK Jarret Stoll scored
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 7:30LAKSean O'Donnell: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 8:31DALStephane Robidas: High sticking2 min
  3. P1 12:02LAKJack Johnson: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 12:02DALTrevor Daley: Roughing2 min
  5. P1 17:31DALMarty Turco: Holding2 min · PPG
  6. P2 0:05LAKFreddy Modin: Hooking2 min
  7. P2 1:58LAKDustin Brown: Tripping2 min
  8. P2 7:33DALSteve Ott: Elbowing2 min
  9. P3 12:09DALJames Neal: Hooking2 min
  10. P3 14:49LAKMatt Greene: Holding the stick2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

LAK00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DAL
43% to win57% to win
← LAK attackDAL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Handzus won the faceoff against Richards
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

LAKDAL
28Shots on goal30
2.8Expected goals3.2
52Shot attempts62
30Faceoffs won23
4Power plays4
10Penalty minutes10
33Hits30
11Blocked shots10
6Giveaways15
5Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DAL 3.2 xGLAK 2.8 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DALLAK

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.

Excitement 47/100 · #641 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.51 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 42% (winner's lowest chance)
LAK 100%5050%50DAL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +28 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 57% of the time.

DAL winsLAK wins

Simulated goal difference (DAL − LAK), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).