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Ice Lab

Fri, Mar 12, 2010·Honda Center, Anaheim

Nashville Predators 1, Anaheim Ducks 0

Away

Nashville Predators

1

Final

Home

Anaheim Ducks

0

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 52% of the time.

ANA winsNSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NSH1908011128
ANA01406011031

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 17:54NSHShea WeberPPGWGAssists: Jason Arnott, Ryan Suter · Slap, 0.09 xG1–0
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 6:27NSHKevin Klein: Roughing2 min
  2. P1 6:27ANAMike Brown: Roughing2 min
  3. P1 15:13ANAAaron Ward: Boarding2 min
  4. P1 15:42NSHPatric Hornqvist: High sticking2 min
  5. P1 17:19ANAAaron Ward: Interference2 min · PPG
  6. P1 17:36ANARyan Getzlaf: High sticking2 min
  7. P2 12:26ANATodd Marchant: Tripping2 min
  8. P2 13:10NSHMartin Erat: Tripping2 min
  9. P3 9:54ANASaku Koivu: Hooking2 min
  10. P3 9:54NSHPatric Hornqvist: Holding the stick2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ANA
43% to win57% to win
← NSH attackANA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Arnott won the faceoff against Koivu
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NSHANA
28Shots on goal31
2.4Expected goals2.3
41Shot attempts50
30Faceoffs won26
4Power plays2
8Penalty minutes12
20Hits23
7Blocked shots5
6Giveaways9
4Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ANA 2.3 xGNSH 2.4 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ANANSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 1/100 · #1214 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.66 · 1 goal in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
NSH 100%5050%50ANA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +19 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 52% of the time.

ANA winsNSH wins

Simulated goal difference (ANA − NSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).