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Ice Lab

Sat, Mar 13, 2010·Wachovia Center, Philadelphia

Chicago Blackhawks 2, Philadelphia Flyers 3

Away

Chicago Blackhawks

2

Final

Home

Philadelphia Flyers

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 62% of the time.

PHI winsCHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CHI015012214241
PHI01209313334

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P3 1:18PHISimon GagneAssists: Daniel Carcillo · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
  2. P3 3:01CHIKris VersteegPPAssists: Marian Hossa, Troy Brouwer · Wrist, 0.53 xG1–1
  3. P3 12:51CHIMarian HossaAssists: Troy Brouwer, Duncan Keith · Snap, 0.02 xG2–1
  4. P3 17:56PHIScott HartnellAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Michael Leighton · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
  5. P3 19:57PHIChris ProngerGWGAssists: Claude Giroux, Scott Hartnell · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 11:48PHIJeff Carter: Cross checking2 min
  2. P1 16:47CHIMarian Hossa: Holding the stick2 min
  3. P2 0:57CHIKris Versteeg: Too many men on the ice2 min
  4. P2 3:54PHIMike Richards: High sticking2 min
  5. P2 7:28CHIKim Johnsson: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 12:02PHIVille Leino: Hooking2 min
  7. P2 17:58PHIDaniel Brière: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 17:58CHICristobal Huet: Roughing2 min
  9. P3 1:42PHIDaniel Brière: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHI
43% to win57% to win
← CHI attackPHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Carter won the faceoff against Madden
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CHIPHI
41Shots on goal34
5.3Expected goals4.5
82Shot attempts67
25Faceoffs won22
4Power plays3
8Penalty minutes10
20Hits14
17Blocked shots26
5Giveaways6
7Takeaways12

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHI 4.5 xGCHI 5.3 xG
0123456P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHICHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 81/100 · #200 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.20 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 9% (winner's lowest chance)
CHI 100%5050%50PHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +48 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 62% of the time.

PHI winsCHI wins

Simulated goal difference (PHI − CHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).