Sat, Mar 13, 2010·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Edmonton Oilers 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 010 | 211 | 28 | 429 |
| TOR | 213 | 315 | 119 | 647 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:34TORNikolay KuleminAssists: Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 18:05TORTyler BozakAssists: Phil Kessel, Nikolay Kulemin · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 0:57EDMAndrew CoglianoAssists: Dustin Penner, Tom Gilbert · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 4:24TORJamie LundmarkAssists: John Mitchell, Carl Gunnarsson · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 6:15TORPhil KesselPPAssists: Tomas Kaberle, Jonas Gustavsson · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–4
- P2 6:50TORMikhail GrabovskiPPGWGAssists: Viktor Stalberg, Carl Gunnarsson · Snap, 0.13 xG1–5
- P2 13:11EDMGilbert BruleAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Dustin Penner · Slap, 0.05 xG2–5
- P3 6:26EDMDustin PennerPPAssists: Ryan Whitney, Sam Gagner · Slap, 0.20 xG3–5
- P3 15:38TORPhil KesselPPAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–6
- P3 19:03EDMAaron JohnsonPPAssists: Mike Comrie, Shawn Horcoff · Snap, 0.02 xG4–6
Penalties (23)
- P1 7:35TORRickard Wallin: Holding2 min
- P2 1:31EDMTaylor Chorney: Holding2 min
- P2 5:25EDMZack Stortini: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 5:53EDMAaron Johnson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:50TORDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:50EDMJeff Deslauriers: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:26TORColton Orr: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 16:00TORLuca Caputi: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 17:32EDMDustin Penner: Holding2 min
- P2 19:29EDMGilbert Brule: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 1:15TORDion Phaneuf: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:15EDMTheo Peckham: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:15EDMTheo Peckham: Misconduct10 min
- P3 4:25EDMMarc-Antoine Pouliot: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:25TORViktor Stalberg: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:44TORTyler Bozak: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 9:36EDMMarc-Antoine Pouliot: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 13:53EDMAndrew Cogliano: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 14:25EDMEthan Moreau: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:02TORColton Orr: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:02EDMTheo Peckham: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:27TORColton Orr: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:30TORDion Phaneuf: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cogliano won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).