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Ice Lab

Sat, Mar 13, 2010·Centre Bell, Montreal

Boston Bruins 2, Montréal Canadiens 3

Away

Boston Bruins

2

Final

Home

Montréal Canadiens

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 70% of the time.

MTL winsBOS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
BOS0615112223
MTL27010110327

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:02MTLAndrei MarkovPPAssists: Benoit Pouliot, Andrei Kostitsyn · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
  2. P1 19:20MTLSergei KostitsynAssists: Andrei Markov, Dominic Moore · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–2
  3. P2 1:12BOSBlake WheelerAssists: Michael Ryder, David Krejci · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–2
  4. P3 1:41MTLSergei KostitsynGWGAssists: Hal Gill, Dominic Moore · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–3
  5. P3 11:46BOSMilan LucicAssists: Vladimir Sobotka · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 2:46MTLRoman Hamrlik: Elbowing2 min
  2. P1 5:02BOSMark Stuart: Holding2 min · PPG
  3. P1 17:03MTLJaroslav Spacek: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 3:40BOSMarco Sturm: Elbowing2 min
  5. P2 9:32BOSMark Stuart: Interference2 min
  6. P2 17:24MTLAndrei Kostitsyn: Interference2 min
  7. P2 17:24BOSMilan Lucic: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 19:15MTLJosh Gorges: Interference2 min
  9. P3 5:10MTLAndrei Markov: Roughing2 min
  10. P3 5:10BOSMarco Sturm: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BOS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MTL
43% to win57% to win
← BOS attackMTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Gomez
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BOSMTL
23Shots on goal27
1.2Expected goals2.1
49Shot attempts51
28Faceoffs won26
3Power plays3
10Penalty minutes10
28Hits17
13Blocked shots14
8Giveaways9
2Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MTL 2.1 xGBOS 1.2 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MTLBOS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 32/100 · #841 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.09 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
BOS 100%5050%50MTL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +14 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 70% of the time.

MTL winsBOS wins

Simulated goal difference (MTL − BOS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).