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Ice Lab

Sat, Mar 13, 2010·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale

New Jersey Devils 2, New York Islanders 4

Away

New Jersey Devils

2

Final

Home

New York Islanders

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 54% of the time.

NYI winsNJD wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NJD11207121240
NYI11121018429

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:52NJDMike MottauAssists: Rod Pelley, Dean McAmmond · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
  2. P1 17:23NYIFreddy MeyerAssists: Tim Jackman, Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–1
  3. P2 11:59NYIJon SimAssists: Richard Park, Jack Hillen · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
  4. P2 12:49NYIMark StreitPPGWGAssists: Frans Nielsen · Slap, 0.03 xG1–3
  5. P3 1:41NJDIlya KovalchukAssists: Dean McAmmond · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
  6. P3 11:33NYISean BergenheimSHAssists: Blake Comeau · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 11:50NYIDwayne Roloson: Delaying game2 min
  2. P2 3:03NJDDavid Clarkson: Interference2 min
  3. P2 9:04NJDZach Parise: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 12:40NJDIlya Kovalchuk: High sticking2 min · PPG
  5. P3 9:15NYIDylan Reese: High sticking double minor4 min
  6. P3 12:26NYIBlake Comeau: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NJD00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NYI
43% to win57% to win
← NJD attackNYI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Zajac
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NJDNYI
40Shots on goal29
4.3Expected goals4.0
62Shot attempts57
25Faceoffs won20
4Power plays3
6Penalty minutes8
18Hits44
16Blocked shots14
11Giveaways6
18Takeaways18

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NYI 4.0 xGNJD 4.3 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NYINJD

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.

Excitement 45/100 · #672 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.28 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 37% (winner's lowest chance)
NJD 100%5050%50NYI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +21 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 54% of the time.

NYI winsNJD wins

Simulated goal difference (NYI − NJD), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).