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Ice Lab

Sat, Mar 13, 2010·RBC Center, Raleigh

Phoenix Coyotes 4, Carolina Hurricanes 0

Away

Phoenix Coyotes

4

Final

Home

Carolina Hurricanes

0

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 67% of the time.

CAR winsPHX wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PHX261618420
CAR0901406029

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:59PHXLee StempniakGWGAssists: Vernon Fiddler · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
  2. P1 15:59PHXLee StempniakPPAssists: Ed Jovanovski, Adrian Aucoin · Snap, 0.07 xG2–0
  3. P2 13:50PHXMartin HanzalAssists: Shane Doan, Adrian Aucoin · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–0
  4. P3 2:45PHXMartin HanzalAssists: Zbynek Michalek · Slap, 0.04 xG4–0
Penalties (5)
  1. P1 14:01CARJerome Samson: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
  2. P2 6:10PHXTaylor Pyatt: High sticking2 min
  3. P2 19:01PHXTaylor Pyatt: Boarding2 min
  4. P3 0:32PHXZbynek Michalek: Holding2 min
  5. P3 7:27CARTim Gleason: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHX00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CAR
43% to win57% to win
← PHX attackCAR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against Jokinen
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHXCAR
20Shots on goal29
2.4Expected goals3.4
50Shot attempts65
26Faceoffs won25
3Power plays3
6Penalty minutes6
20Hits30
14Blocked shots8
1Giveaways9
7Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CAR 3.4 xGPHX 2.4 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CARPHX

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.

Excitement 5/100 · #1161 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.61 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
PHX 100%5050%50CAR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 67% of the time.

CAR winsPHX wins

Simulated goal difference (CAR − PHX), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).