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Ice Lab

Sat, Mar 13, 2010·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit

Buffalo Sabres 2, Detroit Red Wings 3 (OT)

Away

Buffalo Sabres

2

Final

Overtime

Home

Detroit Red Wings

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 62% of the time.

DET winsBUF wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
BUF181601200226
DET217090912337

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:02DETPavel DatsyukAssists: Brad Stuart, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
  2. P1 3:15DETPatrick EavesAssists: Darren Helm · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
  3. P1 7:02BUFJochen HechtAssists: Jason Pominville, Tim Connolly · Backhand, 0.27 xG1–2
  4. P2 5:30BUFJochen HechtAssists: Jason Pominville, Tim Connolly · Wrist, 0.34 xG2–2
  5. OT 0:31DETBrian RafalskiPPGWGAssists: Nicklas Lidstrom, Henrik Zetterberg · Slap, 0.06 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 8:45BUFMike Grier: Slashing2 min
  2. P1 9:25DETPavel Datsyuk: Interference2 min
  3. P1 18:38BUFTyler Myers: Boarding2 min
  4. P2 17:01DETDaniel Cleary: Hooking2 min
  5. P3 4:41BUFDerek Roy: Interference2 min
  6. P3 9:10DETNiklas Kronwall: Hooking2 min
  7. P3 18:47BUFTyler Myers: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BUF00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DET
43% to win57% to win
← BUF attackDET attack →
  1. P1 20:00Helm won the faceoff against Gaustad
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BUFDET
26Shots on goal37
2.2Expected goals2.9
37Shot attempts63
21Faceoffs won22
3Power plays4
8Penalty minutes6
20Hits30
11Blocked shots7
7Giveaways10
4Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DET 2.9 xGBUF 2.2 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DETBUF

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.

Excitement 70/100 · #345 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.67 · 5 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 48% (winner's lowest chance)
BUF 100%5050%50DET 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +19 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 62% of the time.

DET winsBUF wins

Simulated goal difference (DET − BUF), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).