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Ice Lab

Sat, Mar 13, 2010·General Motors Place, Vancouver

Ottawa Senators 1, Vancouver Canucks 5

Away

Ottawa Senators

1

Final

Home

Vancouver Canucks

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 91% of the time.

VAN winsOTT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
OTT021804114
VAN11731018535

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 17:46VANMikael SamuelssonPPAssists: Pavol Demitra, Sami Salo · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
  2. P2 3:00OTTJason SpezzaAssists: Anton Volchenkov, Milan Michalek · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
  3. P2 9:12VANAlexandre BurrowsSHGWGAssists: Ryan Kesler · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
  4. P2 11:30VANMikael SamuelssonAssists: Daniel Sedin · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–3
  5. P2 16:07VANDaniel SedinPPAssists: Henrik Sedin · Tip-in, 0.24 xG1–4
  6. P3 11:21VANSami SaloAssists: Alexander Edler, Mikael Samuelsson · Snap, 0.04 xG1–5
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 7:17VANDaniel Sedin: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 10:38OTTMatt Carkner: Interference2 min
  3. P1 16:56OTTRyan Shannon: Hooking2 min · PPG
  4. P1 19:15OTTBrian Lee: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 7:37VANRyan Johnson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  6. P2 11:54OTTAlex Kovalev: Roughing2 min
  7. P2 14:51OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min · PPG
  8. P2 14:51VANRick Rypien: Fighting5 min
  9. P2 15:16OTTAlex Kovalev: Roughing2 min
  10. P3 6:24VANMason Raymond: High sticking2 min
  11. P3 6:24OTTMatt Carkner: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 15:39OTTChris Neil: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

OTT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0VAN
43% to win57% to win
← OTT attackVAN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Kesler
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

OTTVAN
14Shots on goal35
0.8Expected goals3.3
28Shot attempts68
23Faceoffs won30
2Power plays6
19Penalty minutes11
23Hits20
19Blocked shots12
3Giveaways3
6Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

VAN 3.3 xGOTT 0.8 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

VANOTT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 30/100 · #866 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.02 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 53% (winner's lowest chance)
OTT 100%5050%50VAN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +20 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 91% of the time.

VAN winsOTT wins

Simulated goal difference (VAN − OTT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).