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Ice Lab

Sat, Mar 13, 2010·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose

Florida Panthers 3, San Jose Sharks 2 (OT)

Away

Florida Panthers

3

Final

Overtime

Home

San Jose Sharks

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 76% of the time.

SJS winsFLA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
FLA061121801327
SJS2901401204239

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:32SJSRyane CloweAssists: Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
  2. P1 17:45SJSPatrick MarleauPPAssists: Joe Pavelski, Ryane Clowe · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
  3. P2 1:02FLAKeith BallardAssists: Radek Dvorak, Gregory Campbell · Slap, 0.13 xG1–2
  4. P3 5:01FLAShawn MatthiasAssists: Bryan Allen, Radek Dvorak · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–2
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 5:36SJSBrad Staubitz: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 5:36FLANick Tarnasky: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 16:47FLADmitry Kulikov: Holding2 min · PPG
  4. P2 3:08FLAKeith Ballard: Tripping2 min
  5. P2 5:18SJSJoe Pavelski: Interference2 min
  6. P2 8:47SJSRob Blake: Interference2 min
  7. P3 0:22FLAJason Garrison: Boarding2 min
  8. P3 0:22SJSManny Malhotra: Instigator2 min
  9. P3 0:22SJSManny Malhotra: Fighting5 min
  10. P3 0:22SJSManny Malhotra: Misconduct10 min
  11. P3 0:22FLAJason Garrison: Fighting5 min
  12. P3 2:30SJSNiclas Wallin: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

FLA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0SJS
43% to win57% to win
← FLA attackSJS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Weiss won the faceoff against Marleau
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

FLASJS
27Shots on goal39
2.2Expected goals3.8
54Shot attempts78
23Faceoffs won35
3Power plays2
16Penalty minutes28
36Hits32
19Blocked shots15
3Giveaways10
9Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

SJS 3.8 xGFLA 2.2 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

SJSFLA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 64/100 · #438 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.44 · 4 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 15% (winner's lowest chance)
FLA 100%5050%50SJS 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +27 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 76% of the time.

SJS winsFLA wins

Simulated goal difference (SJS − FLA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).