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Ice Lab

Sun, Mar 14, 2010·Madison Square Garden, New York

Philadelphia Flyers 1, New York Rangers 3

Away

Philadelphia Flyers

1

Final

Home

New York Rangers

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 79% of the time.

NYR winsPHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PHI170605118
NYR0421215321

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:13PHIDaniel BrièrePPAssists: Matt Carle · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
  2. P2 1:53NYRSean AveryAssists: Wade Redden, Erik Christensen · Backhand, 0.24 xG1–1
  3. P2 4:54NYRMichal RozsivalPPGWGAssists: Erik Christensen, Chris Drury · Slap, 0.06 xG1–2
  4. P3 14:05NYRSean AveryAssists: Dan Girardi, Chris Drury · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 2:59NYROlli Jokinen: Slashing2 min · PPG
  2. P1 7:47PHIArron Asham: High sticking2 min
  3. P1 16:44NYRMichal Rozsival: Interference2 min
  4. P2 2:09PHIChris Pronger: Roughing2 min
  5. P2 2:09NYRSean Avery: Interference2 min
  6. P2 3:23PHILukas Krajicek: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  7. P2 8:53NYRRyan Callahan: Holding the stick2 min
  8. P2 13:19PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  9. P2 17:30PHIScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
  10. P3 4:36PHIBraydon Coburn: Interference2 min
  11. P3 7:10NYRArtem Anisimov: Tripping2 min
  12. P3 16:14PHIMike Richards: Fighting5 min
  13. P3 16:14NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Fighting5 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NYR
43% to win57% to win
← PHI attackNYR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Carter won the faceoff against Christensen
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHINYR
18Shots on goal21
1.9Expected goals3.8
45Shot attempts55
26Faceoffs won25
4Power plays5
17Penalty minutes15
31Hits34
18Blocked shots15
2Giveaways7
2Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NYR 3.8 xGPHI 1.9 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NYRPHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 31/100 · #863 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.14 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 35% (winner's lowest chance)
PHI 100%5050%50NYR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +19 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 79% of the time.

NYR winsPHI wins

Simulated goal difference (NYR − PHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).