Sun, Mar 14, 2010·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Colorado Avalanche 5, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 17 | 312 | 13 | 522 |
| DAL | 114 | 219 | 018 | 351 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:19COLMilan HejdukAssists: Kyle Cumiskey, Brett Clark · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 14:31DALJamie BennAssists: James Neal, Trevor Daley · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 4:28COLDarcy TuckerPPAssists: Milan Hejduk, Kyle Cumiskey · Snap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 5:59DALBrandon SegalAssists: Brad Richards, Mark Fistric · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–2
- P2 7:21DALBrandon SegalAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Mark Fistric · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P2 11:05COLPaul StastnyPPAssists: Peter Mueller, John-Michael Liles · Deflected, 0.13 xG3–3
- P2 13:46COLChris StewartGWGAssists: Darcy Tucker, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrap-around, 0.09 xG4–3
- P3 12:23COLPaul StastnyAssists: Matt Hendricks · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 14:38DALSteve Ott: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:38COLMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:43COLPaul Stastny: Delaying game2 min
- P2 3:02DALTrevor Daley: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:36DALBrandon Segal: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 10:36COLMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:36DALBrandon Segal: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:13COLAdam Foote: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:03DALJames Neal: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:20COLTJ Galiardi: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:27COLKyle Quincey: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:56COLScott Hannan: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Benn won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).