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Ice Lab

Sun, Mar 14, 2010·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles

Nashville Predators 3, Los Angeles Kings 2

Away

Nashville Predators

3

Final

Home

Los Angeles Kings

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 62% of the time.

LAK winsNSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NSH1140829331
LAK1110415220

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:42NSHSteve SullivanAssists: Marcel Goc, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
  2. P1 8:56LAKAnze KopitarPPAssists: Michal Handzus · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
  3. P3 5:56LAKDustin BrownAssists: Drew Doughty · Snap, 0.13 xG1–2
  4. P3 6:35NSHColin WilsonAssists: Martin Erat, Jason Arnott · Wrist, 0.34 xG2–2
  5. P3 16:29NSHPatric HornqvistGWGAssists: Dan Hamhuis, David Legwand · Wrist, 0.38 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
  1. P1 8:12NSHKevin Klein: Hooking2 min · PPG
  2. P1 13:35LAKJustin Williams: Slashing2 min
  3. P2 1:24LAKRich Clune: Fighting5 min
  4. P2 1:24NSHJordin Tootoo: Fighting5 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0LAK
43% to win57% to win
← NSH attackLAK attack →
  1. P1 20:00Arnott won the faceoff against Handzus
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NSHLAK
31Shots on goal20
2.8Expected goals2.2
55Shot attempts41
31Faceoffs won28
1Power plays1
7Penalty minutes7
21Hits20
8Blocked shots10
12Giveaways14
3Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

LAK 2.2 xGNSH 2.8 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

LAKNSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 46/100 · #650 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.48 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 21% (winner's lowest chance)
NSH 100%5050%50LAK 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +40 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 62% of the time.

LAK winsNSH wins

Simulated goal difference (LAK − NSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).