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Ice Lab

Sun, Mar 14, 2010·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale

Toronto Maple Leafs 1, New York Islanders 4

Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

1

Final

Home

New York Islanders

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 80% of the time.

NYI winsTOR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
TOR1110709127
NYI21411117432

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:57TORNikolay KuleminAssists: Mikhail Grabovski · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
  2. P1 2:51NYITim JackmanAssists: Richard Park, Trevor Gillies · Tip-in, 0.26 xG1–1
  3. P1 8:55NYIRichard ParkSHGWGAssists: Blake Comeau, Jack Hillen · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
  4. P2 18:22NYIFrans NielsenAssists: Blake Comeau, Jon Sim · Tip-in, 0.22 xG1–3
  5. P3 17:40NYIMatt MoulsonPPAssists: Josh Bailey, Blake Comeau · Tip-in, 0.25 xG1–4
Penalties (17)
  1. P1 7:56NYIMatt Martin: Boarding2 min
  2. P1 7:56TORJamie Lundmark: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  3. P1 7:56NYIMatt Martin: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  4. P1 10:15TORNikolay Kulemin: High sticking2 min
  5. P1 13:49NYIJack Hillen: Holding2 min
  6. P1 14:49TORLuca Caputi: Roughing2 min
  7. P1 17:05TORNikolay Kulemin: Interference2 min
  8. P2 1:22NYIMark Streit: Cross checking2 min
  9. P2 5:10TORJamie Lundmark: Holding2 min
  10. P2 8:06TORChristian Hanson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  11. P2 18:43NYIDustin Kohn: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 2:09NYIMatt Moulson: Too many men on the ice2 min
  13. P3 8:30NYIBlake Comeau: Hooking2 min
  14. P3 8:50NYIFreddy Meyer: Hooking2 min
  15. P3 8:50TORPhil Kessel: Tripping2 min
  16. P3 16:02TORTomas Kaberle: Slashing2 min · PPG
  17. P3 18:40NYIJon Sim: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TOR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NYI
43% to win57% to win
← TOR attackNYI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Nielsen
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TORNYI
27Shots on goal32
3.0Expected goals5.2
52Shot attempts58
27Faceoffs won34
7Power plays6
16Penalty minutes18
22Hits21
13Blocked shots16
7Giveaways7
16Takeaways17

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NYI 5.2 xGTOR 3.0 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NYITOR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 29/100 · #883 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.97 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 42% (winner's lowest chance)
TOR 100%5050%50NYI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 80% of the time.

NYI winsTOR wins

Simulated goal difference (NYI − TOR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).