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Ice Lab

Sun, Mar 14, 2010·Philips Arena, Atlanta

Phoenix Coyotes 3, Atlanta Thrashers 2 (SO)

Away

Phoenix Coyotes

3

Final

Shootout

Home

Atlanta Thrashers

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 56% of the time.

ATL winsPHX wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
PHX04113114032334
ATL010016211041241

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 5:14PHXMatthew LombardiAssists: Keith Yandle, Shane Doan · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
  2. P3 0:34ATLMaxim AfinogenovPPAssists: Nik Antropov, Toby Enstrom · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
  3. P3 10:39PHXLee StempniakPPAssists: Taylor Pyatt, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–1
  4. P3 13:38ATLNik AntropovPPAssists: Maxim Afinogenov, Ron Hainsey · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–2

Shootout

  1. 1. ATL Nik Antropov stopped
  2. 2. PHX Wojtek Wolski stopped
  3. 3. ATL Bryan Little stopped
  4. 4. PHX Lauri Korpikoski stopped
  5. 5. ATL Rich Peverley scored
  6. 6. PHX Radim Vrbata scored
  7. 7. ATL Clarke MacArthur stopped
  8. 8. PHX Adrian Aucoin scored
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 0:56PHXWojtek Wolski: Too many men on the ice2 min
  2. P1 9:50PHXWojtek Wolski: Too many men on the ice2 min
  3. P1 14:46ATLNik Antropov: Elbowing2 min
  4. P2 0:25PHXTaylor Pyatt: Holding the stick2 min
  5. P2 10:10ATLPavel Kubina: Elbowing2 min
  6. P2 12:57PHXLauri Korpikoski: High sticking2 min
  7. P2 19:13PHXLee Stempniak: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
  8. P3 3:26ATLMarty Reasoner: Hooking2 min
  9. P3 6:23PHXRadim Vrbata: Tripping2 min
  10. P3 8:43ATLBryan Little: Hooking2 min · PPG
  11. P3 11:45PHXShane Doan: Holding2 min · PPG
  12. P3 17:24PHXAdrian Aucoin: Cross checking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHX00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ATL
43% to win57% to win
← PHX attackATL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Reasoner won the faceoff against Hanzal
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHXATL
34Shots on goal41
2.8Expected goals3.2
49Shot attempts63
28Faceoffs won35
4Power plays8
16Penalty minutes8
8Hits8
12Blocked shots9
1Giveaways7
14Takeaways15

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ATL 3.2 xGPHX 2.8 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ATLPHX

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.

Excitement 90/100 · #102 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.49 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 39% (winner's lowest chance)
PHX 100%5050%50ATL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +35 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 56% of the time.

ATL winsPHX wins

Simulated goal difference (ATL − PHX), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).