Sun, Mar 14, 2010·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 013 | 011 | 215 | 239 |
| TBL | 010 | 17 | 05 | 122 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:09TBLVincent LecavalierAssists: Todd Fedoruk, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P3 2:20PITPascal DupuisAssists: Jordan Staal, Matt Cooke · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 5:17PITSergei GoncharPPGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Alexei Ponikarovsky · Slap, 0.07 xG2–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:40TBLSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
- P1 1:57PITBill Guerin: Interference2 min
- P1 8:18PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:17TBLTeddy Purcell: Interference2 min
- P3 3:03TBLKurtis Foster: Boarding2 min
- P3 4:54TBLPaul Szczechura: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 6:41PITRuslan Fedotenko: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:41TBLVictor Hedman: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:41TBLVictor Hedman: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:20PITJordan Staal: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:24PITBrooks Orpik: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:24TBLSteve Downie: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stamkos won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).