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Ice Lab

Sun, Mar 14, 2010·Honda Center, Anaheim

San Jose Sharks 2, Anaheim Ducks 4

Away

San Jose Sharks

2

Final

Home

Anaheim Ducks

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 54% of the time.

ANA winsSJS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
SJS09010214233
ANA310013110433

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:27ANACorey PerryAssists: Bobby Ryan, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–1
  2. P1 7:40ANATeemu SelanneAssists: Saku Koivu · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
  3. P1 19:05ANALubomir VisnovskyGWGAssists: Dan Sexton, Teemu Selanne · Slap, 0.04 xG0–3
  4. P3 9:06SJSJoe ThorntonAssists: Jamie McGinn, Devin Setoguchi · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–3
  5. P3 18:47ANABobby RyanENAssists: Saku Koivu · Wrist, 0.61 xG1–4
  6. P3 19:04SJSJamie McGinnAssists: Kent Huskins · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–4
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 4:33ANALubomir Visnovsky: Interference2 min
  2. P1 9:01SJSDany Heatley: Roughing2 min
  3. P1 10:29ANABobby Ryan: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 10:29SJSDan Boyle: Roughing2 min
  5. P1 10:29ANABobby Ryan: Misconduct10 min
  6. P1 10:29SJSDan Boyle: Misconduct10 min
  7. P1 14:57ANATodd Marchant: Tripping2 min
  8. P2 9:57SJSBrad Staubitz: Interference2 min
  9. P2 11:23SJSTorrey Mitchell: Tripping2 min
  10. P2 17:31SJSRob Blake: Interference2 min
  11. P3 3:35ANAMike Brown: High sticking2 min
  12. P3 6:14ANASheldon Brookbank: Tripping2 min
  13. P3 6:21SJSJoe Pavelski: High sticking2 min
  14. P3 14:03SJSPatrick Marleau: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

SJS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ANA
43% to win57% to win
← SJS attackANA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Getzlaf
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

SJSANA
33Shots on goal33
4.1Expected goals4.3
67Shot attempts48
31Faceoffs won20
4Power plays6
24Penalty minutes20
25Hits27
5Blocked shots16
7Giveaways5
8Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ANA 4.3 xGSJS 4.1 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ANASJS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 41/100 · #728 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.56 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
SJS 100%5050%50ANA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 54% of the time.

ANA winsSJS wins

Simulated goal difference (ANA − SJS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).