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Ice Lab

Sun, Mar 14, 2010·General Motors Place, Vancouver

Calgary Flames 1, Vancouver Canucks 3

Away

Calgary Flames

1

Final

Home

Vancouver Canucks

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 59% of the time.

VAN winsCGY wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CGY06016111133
VAN3200800328

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:13VANDaniel SedinAssists: Henrik Sedin, Alexander Edler · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
  2. P1 7:27VANRyan KeslerGWGAssists: Alexandre Burrows · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
  3. P1 16:26VANHenrik SedinPPAssists: Daniel Sedin, Mikael Samuelsson · Wrist, 0.36 xG0–3
  4. P3 11:50CGYRobyn RegehrAssists: Daymond Langkow, Curtis Glencross · Slap, 0.02 xG1–3
Penalties (15)
  1. P1 7:49VANAaron Rome: Cross checking2 min
  2. P1 12:01CGYMark Giordano: Interference2 min
  3. P1 15:43CGYCory Sarich: Hooking2 min · PPG
  4. P1 16:00CGYRobyn Regehr: Cross checking2 min
  5. P1 19:58CGYMark Giordano: Roughing2 min
  6. P1 19:58CGYDaymond Langkow: Roughing2 min
  7. P1 19:58VANAlexandre Burrows: Roughing2 min
  8. P1 19:58VANRyan Kesler: Roughing2 min
  9. P2 11:24CGYJay Bouwmeester: Holding2 min
  10. P2 13:29VANDaniel Sedin: Interference2 min
  11. P2 16:07CGYDavid Moss: High sticking2 min
  12. P3 1:00VANHenrik Sedin: Hooking2 min
  13. P3 3:44CGYCurtis Glencross: Tripping2 min
  14. P3 5:52VANJannik Hansen: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  15. P3 17:12VANSami Salo: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CGY00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0VAN
43% to win57% to win
← CGY attackVAN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Langkow
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CGYVAN
33Shots on goal28
2.4Expected goals2.9
70Shot attempts46
25Faceoffs won34
5Power plays6
16Penalty minutes14
28Hits16
12Blocked shots18
2Giveaways4
7Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

VAN 2.9 xGCGY 2.4 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

VANCGY

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.

Excitement 13/100 · #1055 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.56 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
CGY 100%5050%50VAN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +14 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 59% of the time.

VAN winsCGY wins

Simulated goal difference (VAN − CGY), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).