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Ice Lab

Mon, Mar 15, 2010·Prudential Center, Newark

Boston Bruins 2, New Jersey Devils 3

Away

Boston Bruins

2

Final

Home

New Jersey Devils

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 53% of the time.

NJD winsBOS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
BOS011110115236
NJD31201006328

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 9:58NJDRob NiedermayerAssists: David Clarkson, Martin Skoula · Snap, 0.14 xG0–1
  2. P1 17:23NJDDavid ClarksonAssists: Martin Brodeur · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–2
  3. P1 18:08NJDZach PariseGWGAssists: Mike Mottau, Patrik Elias · Backhand, 0.05 xG0–3
  4. P2 0:43BOSBlake WheelerAssists: Mark Stuart, David Krejci · Slap, 0.05 xG1–3
  5. P3 18:57BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Dennis Seidenberg, Blake Wheeler · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 0:52BOSBlake Wheeler: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 5:34NJDJamie Langenbrunner: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  3. P1 13:50NJDRod Pelley: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 13:50BOSMark Stuart: Fighting5 min
  5. P2 2:47BOSShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 2:47NJDPierre-Luc Letourneau-Leblond: Fighting5 min
  7. P3 14:43NJDMike Mottau: Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BOS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NJD
43% to win57% to win
← BOS attackNJD attack →
  1. P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Elias
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BOSNJD
36Shots on goal28
1.9Expected goals1.8
45Shot attempts38
29Faceoffs won25
2Power plays1
12Penalty minutes14
20Hits19
3Blocked shots4
2Giveaways8
2Takeaways1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NJD 1.8 xGBOS 1.9 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NJDBOS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 60/100 · #490 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.77 · 5 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
BOS 100%5050%50NJD 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 53% of the time.

NJD winsBOS wins

Simulated goal difference (NJD − BOS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).