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Ice Lab

Mon, Mar 15, 2010·Pengrowth Saddledome, Calgary

Detroit Red Wings 2, Calgary Flames 1

Away

Detroit Red Wings

2

Final

Home

Calgary Flames

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 64% of the time.

CGY winsDET wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
DET01011018228
CGY1100706123

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:47CGYCraig ConroyAssists: Nigel Dawes · Backhand, 0.27 xG0–1
  2. P2 19:10DETPavel DatsyukPPAssists: Brian Rafalski, Johan Franzen · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
  3. P3 18:41DETTomas HolmstromGWGAssists: Johan Franzen, Brad Stuart · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–1
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 9:34CGYRene Bourque: Interference2 min
  2. P1 9:34DETHenrik Zetterberg: Holding2 min
  3. P1 14:34DETValtteri Filppula: Holding2 min
  4. P2 17:54CGYSteve Staios: Interference2 min · PPG
  5. P2 18:30DETHenrik Zetterberg: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
  6. P3 3:12DETBrian Rafalski: High sticking double minor4 min
  7. P3 12:07DETTomas Holmstrom: Cross checking2 min
  8. P3 12:07CGYNiklas Hagman: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DET00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CGY
43% to win57% to win
← DET attackCGY attack →
  1. P1 20:00Stajan won the faceoff against Datsyuk
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DETCGY
28Shots on goal23
2.3Expected goals1.6
45Shot attempts45
20Faceoffs won34
1Power plays3
10Penalty minutes6
16Hits23
13Blocked shots5
6Giveaways9
5Takeaways13

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CGY 1.6 xGDET 2.3 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CGYDET

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.

Excitement 21/100 · #957 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.09 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 24% (winner's lowest chance)
DET 100%5050%50CGY 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +45 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 64% of the time.

CGY winsDET wins

Simulated goal difference (CGY − DET), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).