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Ice Lab

Tue, Mar 16, 2010·RBC Center, Raleigh

Boston Bruins 5, Carolina Hurricanes 2

Away

Boston Bruins

5

Final

Home

Carolina Hurricanes

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 56% of the time.

CAR winsBOS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
BOS11818311537
CAR07113112232

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:23BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Dennis Seidenberg, Mark Recchi · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–0
  2. P2 8:27BOSJohnny BoychukAssists: Matt Hunwick, Michael Ryder · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
  3. P2 13:53CARErik ColePPAssists: Jamie McBain, Sergei Samsonov · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
  4. P3 0:45BOSMark RecchiGWGAssists: David Krejci · Snap, 0.08 xG3–1
  5. P3 1:53CARErik ColeAssists: Brandon Sutter, Tuomo Ruutu · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
  6. P3 9:48BOSMichael RyderUnassisted · Snap, 0.04 xG4–2
  7. P3 12:27BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Miroslav Satan · Wrist, 0.15 xG5–2
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 3:49BOSBlake Wheeler: High sticking2 min
  2. P1 11:26CARJussi Jokinen: Interference2 min
  3. P1 11:45CARJoni Pitkanen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  4. P1 14:40CAREric Staal: Interference2 min
  5. P2 11:57BOSBlake Wheeler: Holding2 min · PPG
  6. P2 12:25BOSMark Stuart: Roughing2 min
  7. P2 12:25CAREric Staal: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 15:46BOSPatrice Bergeron: Slashing2 min
  9. P2 17:32CARJussi Jokinen: Too many men on the ice2 min
  10. P2 18:36BOSMark Recchi: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BOS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CAR
43% to win57% to win
← BOS attackCAR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Bergeron
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BOSCAR
37Shots on goal32
4.3Expected goals3.9
67Shot attempts63
36Faceoffs won24
4Power plays4
10Penalty minutes10
27Hits34
18Blocked shots10
3Giveaways5
9Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CAR 3.9 xGBOS 4.3 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CARBOS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 55/100 · #546 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.41 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
BOS 100%5050%50CAR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +18 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 56% of the time.

CAR winsBOS wins

Simulated goal difference (CAR − BOS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).