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Ice Lab

Tue, Mar 16, 2010·Philips Arena, Atlanta

Buffalo Sabres 3, Atlanta Thrashers 4

Away

Buffalo Sabres

3

Final

Home

Atlanta Thrashers

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 78% of the time.

ATL winsBUF wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
BUF1911419332
ATL3130617426

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:33ATLNik AntropovAssists: Maxim Afinogenov, Niclas Bergfors · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
  2. P1 4:38ATLBryan LittleAssists: Rich Peverley, Clarke MacArthur · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
  3. P1 4:56BUFJason PominvillePPAssists: Derek Roy, Tim Connolly · Snap, 0.06 xG1–2
  4. P1 5:40ATLMaxim AfinogenovAssists: Nik Antropov, Niclas Bergfors · Snap, 0.12 xG1–3
  5. P2 4:38BUFMatt EllisAssists: Tim Kennedy, Tyler Myers · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–3
  6. P3 7:02BUFTim KennedyAssists: Steve Montador, Toni Lydman · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–3
  7. P3 13:16ATLJim SlaterGWGAssists: Niclas Bergfors, Toby Enstrom · Wrist, 0.50 xG3–4
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 4:42ATLEvgeny Artyukhin: Slashing2 min · PPG
  2. P1 7:05ATLJim Slater: Interference2 min
  3. P1 14:37BUFPatrick Kaleta: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 14:37ATLJohnny Oduya: Roughing2 min
  5. P2 6:00BUFCraig Rivet: Interference2 min
  6. P2 9:26BUFSteve Montador: Interference2 min
  7. P2 9:44ATLPavel Kubina: Holding2 min
  8. P2 12:56BUFThomas Vanek: Interference2 min
  9. P2 12:56ATLBryan Little: Holding2 min
  10. P3 4:41ATLRon Hainsey: Slashing2 min
  11. P3 9:10BUFPaul Gaustad: Interference2 min
  12. P3 14:29BUFCraig Rivet: Hooking2 min
  13. P3 18:11BUFAdam Mair: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BUF00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ATL
43% to win57% to win
← BUF attackATL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Antropov won the faceoff against Connolly
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BUFATL
32Shots on goal26
2.2Expected goals4.0
57Shot attempts48
29Faceoffs won29
4Power plays5
14Penalty minutes12
8Hits13
9Blocked shots15
2Giveaways5
14Takeaways15

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ATL 4.0 xGBUF 2.2 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ATLBUF

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.

Excitement 74/100 · #276 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.74 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 51% (winner's lowest chance)
BUF 100%5050%50ATL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +33 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 78% of the time.

ATL winsBUF wins

Simulated goal difference (ATL − BUF), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).