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Ice Lab

Tue, Mar 16, 2010·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa

Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Ottawa Senators 1

Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

4

Final

Home

Ottawa Senators

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 51% of the time.

OTT winsTOR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
TOR1726117430
OTT0911309131

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 11:20TORPhil KesselAssists: Nikolay Kulemin, Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
  2. P2 4:33TORJohn MitchellSHGWGAssists: Christian Hanson, Luke Schenn · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
  3. P2 4:52TORMikhail GrabovskiAssists: Luca Caputi, Viktor Stalberg · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–0
  4. P2 18:26OTTAndy SuttonAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Matt Cullen · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–1
  5. P3 19:10TORRickard WallinENAssists: Jamie Lundmark, Francois Beauchemin · Slap, 0.61 xG4–1
Penalties (16)
  1. P1 3:02OTTJesse Winchester: Elbowing2 min
  2. P1 5:51TORDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
  3. P1 5:51OTTNick Foligno: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 14:20TORGarnet Exelby: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 14:20OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
  6. P1 19:22TORMikhail Grabovski: Tripping2 min
  7. P2 2:06TORViktor Stalberg: Hooking2 min
  8. P2 6:36TORGarnet Exelby: Interference2 min
  9. P2 9:04OTTAnton Volchenkov: Slashing2 min
  10. P2 11:00OTTAndy Sutton: High sticking2 min
  11. P3 7:47OTTJarkko Ruutu: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 7:47OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
  13. P3 7:47TORLuke Schenn: Roughing2 min
  14. P3 7:47TORGarnet Exelby: Roughing2 min
  15. P3 8:38OTTDaniel Alfredsson: Boarding2 min
  16. P3 10:31OTTAndy Sutton: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TOR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0OTT
43% to win57% to win
← TOR attackOTT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Cullen won the faceoff against Bozak
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TOROTT
30Shots on goal31
2.7Expected goals2.7
54Shot attempts63
24Faceoffs won30
5Power plays3
17Penalty minutes21
14Hits19
20Blocked shots16
11Giveaways18
10Takeaways14

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

OTT 2.7 xGTOR 2.7 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

OTTTOR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 25/100 · #915 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.81 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 42% (winner's lowest chance)
TOR 100%5050%50OTT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 51% of the time.

OTT winsTOR wins

Simulated goal difference (OTT − TOR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).