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Ice Lab

Tue, Mar 16, 2010·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa

Phoenix Coyotes 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 1

Away

Phoenix Coyotes

2

Final

Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 72% of the time.

TBL winsPHX wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PHX2130609228
TBL0811307128

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:56PHXVernon FiddlerAssists: Lee Stempniak · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
  2. P1 9:45PHXMatthew LombardiGWGAssists: Wojtek Wolski, Shane Doan · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–0
  3. P2 16:07TBLTodd FedorukAssists: Brandon Bochenski, Mark Parrish · Backhand, 0.19 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
  1. P2 1:26PHXEd Jovanovski: Holding2 min
  2. P2 6:33TBLTodd Fedoruk: Slashing2 min
  3. P2 13:06PHXMartin Hanzal: Cross checking2 min
  4. P3 2:53PHXPetteri Nokelainen: Hooking2 min
  5. P3 5:56PHXKeith Yandle: High sticking2 min
  6. P3 6:26TBLSteve Downie: Tripping2 min
  7. P3 12:28TBLAndrej Meszaros: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHX00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TBL
43% to win57% to win
← PHX attackTBL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against Lecavalier
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHXTBL
28Shots on goal28
1.8Expected goals3.0
46Shot attempts51
23Faceoffs won31
3Power plays4
8Penalty minutes6
13Hits14
10Blocked shots11
4Giveaways8
4Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TBL 3.0 xGPHX 1.8 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TBLPHX

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.

Excitement 22/100 · #951 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.10 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
PHX 100%5050%50TBL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 72% of the time.

TBL winsPHX wins

Simulated goal difference (TBL − PHX), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).