Skip to content
Ice Lab

Tue, Mar 16, 2010·Scottrade Center, St. Louis

Colorado Avalanche 5, St. Louis Blues 3

Away

Colorado Avalanche

5

Final

Home

St. Louis Blues

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 83% of the time.

STL winsCOL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
COL2122816526
STL19216014339

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:08STLAlexander SteenAssists: Barret Jackman, Jay McClement · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
  2. P1 14:19COLPeter MuellerPPAssists: John-Michael Liles, Paul Stastny · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
  3. P1 17:20COLMilan HejdukAssists: Matt Duchene, Peter Mueller · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–1
  4. P2 0:34STLPatrik BerglundPPAssists: Erik Johnson, T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
  5. P2 7:14COLPaul StastnyAssists: TJ Galiardi, Chris Stewart · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–2
  6. P2 8:43COLPeter MuellerGWGAssists: Matt Duchene, Adam Foote · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–2
  7. P2 11:06STLDavid PerronAssists: Andy McDonald, Erik Johnson · Backhand, 0.14 xG4–3
  8. P3 17:14COLChris StewartAssists: TJ Galiardi, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–3
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 1:17COLChris Stewart: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 9:45COLScott Hannan: Holding2 min
  3. P1 13:38STLPatrik Berglund: High sticking2 min · PPG
  4. P1 18:30STLMike Weaver: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 18:30COLDarcy Tucker: Fighting5 min · PPG
  6. P1 18:53COLKyle Quincey: Hooking2 min
  7. P1 18:53STLAlexander Steen: Roughing2 min
  8. P1 18:53COLKyle Quincey: Roughing2 min
  9. P2 10:04COLMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
  10. P2 10:04STLB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
  11. P2 18:32COLDarcy Tucker: Hooking2 min
  12. P2 19:20COLKyle Quincey: Fighting5 min
  13. P2 19:20STLDavid Backes: Fighting5 min
  14. P3 19:05STLKeith Tkachuk: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

COL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0STL
43% to win57% to win
← COL attackSTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00McClement won the faceoff against Stastny
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

COLSTL
26Shots on goal39
2.1Expected goals4.5
38Shot attempts76
29Faceoffs won37
2Power plays4
25Penalty minutes21
17Hits15
15Blocked shots5
4Giveaways3
4Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

STL 4.5 xGCOL 2.1 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

STLCOL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 73/100 · #301 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.70 · 8 goals in reachComeback index 28% (winner's lowest chance)
COL 100%5050%50STL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +21 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 83% of the time.

STL winsCOL wins

Simulated goal difference (STL − COL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).