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Ice Lab

Tue, Mar 16, 2010·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville

Philadelphia Flyers 3, Nashville Predators 4 (SO)

Away

Philadelphia Flyers

3

Final

Shootout

Home

Nashville Predators

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 60% of the time.

NSH winsPHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
PHI117012210060345
NSH3906010051430

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:21PHIJeff CarterAssists: Daniel Brière, Scott Hartnell · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–0
  2. P1 4:33NSHSteve SullivanAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Marcel Goc · Tip-in, 0.24 xG1–1
  3. P1 7:04NSHMartin EratAssists: Jason Arnott, Dan Hamhuis · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
  4. P1 10:05NSHJerred SmithsonAssists: Joel Ward, David Legwand · Wrist, 0.56 xG1–3
  5. P3 11:14PHISimon GagneAssists: Daniel Brière, Matt Carle · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–3
  6. P3 14:18PHIChris ProngerPPAssists: Mike Richards, Kimmo Timonen · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. PHI Daniel Brière stopped
  2. 2. NSH Marcel Goc stopped
  3. 3. PHI Claude Giroux stopped
  4. 4. NSH Martin Erat scored
Penalties (4)
  1. P1 8:50NSHJordin Tootoo: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 8:50PHIIan Laperriere: Fighting5 min
  3. P2 6:20NSHJerred Smithson: Holding2 min
  4. P3 12:43NSHDan Hamhuis: Delaying game2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NSH
43% to win57% to win
← PHI attackNSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Arnott won the faceoff against Carter
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHINSH
45Shots on goal30
3.3Expected goals2.7
75Shot attempts52
33Faceoffs won32
2Power plays0
5Penalty minutes9
22Hits13
9Blocked shots20
6Giveaways8
10Takeaways21

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NSH 2.7 xGPHI 3.3 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NSHPHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 73/100 · #296 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.77 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 41% (winner's lowest chance)
PHI 100%5050%50NSH 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +34 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 60% of the time.

NSH winsPHI wins

Simulated goal difference (NSH − PHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).