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Ice Lab

Tue, Mar 16, 2010·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul

Edmonton Oilers 2, Minnesota Wild 4

Away

Edmonton Oilers

2

Final

Home

Minnesota Wild

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 66% of the time.

MIN winsEDM wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
EDM05111119235
MIN1911524428

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 17:38MINAndrew EbbettAssists: Guillaume Latendresse, Martin Havlat · Tip-in, 0.18 xG0–1
  2. P2 8:36EDMMarc-Antoine PouliotAssists: Jason Strudwick, Sam Gagner · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
  3. P2 17:56MINAntti MiettinenAssists: Andrew Brunette, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
  4. P3 1:14EDMRyan PotulnyPPAssists: Sam Gagner, Ryan Whitney · Snap, 0.14 xG2–2
  5. P3 4:37MINChuck KobasewGWGAssists: Kyle Brodziak, Cal Clutterbuck · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–3
  6. P3 8:15MINMartin HavlatAssists: Andrew Ebbett, Greg Zanon · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–4
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 5:48MINJohn Scott: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  2. P1 5:48EDMZack Stortini: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  3. P1 14:10EDMAndrew Cogliano: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 5:03EDMRyan Whitney: Holding2 min
  5. P2 12:56EDMEthan Moreau: Cross checking2 min
  6. P2 13:26MINOwen Nolan: Tripping2 min
  7. P2 19:49MINMarek Zidlicky: Hooking2 min · PPG
  8. P2 19:49MINCal Clutterbuck: Interference2 min
  9. P3 5:55MINCam Barker: Hooking2 min
  10. P3 16:27MINCal Clutterbuck: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

EDM00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MIN
43% to win57% to win
← EDM attackMIN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Cogliano won the faceoff against Ebbett
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

EDMMIN
35Shots on goal28
2.0Expected goals2.9
60Shot attempts58
32Faceoffs won39
5Power plays3
8Penalty minutes12
23Hits19
13Blocked shots13
5Giveaways5
6Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MIN 2.9 xGEDM 2.0 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MINEDM

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.

Excitement 50/100 · #604 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.59 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 52% (winner's lowest chance)
EDM 100%5050%50MIN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +26 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 66% of the time.

MIN winsEDM wins

Simulated goal difference (MIN − EDM), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).