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Ice Lab

Tue, Mar 16, 2010·American Airlines Center, Dallas

San Jose Sharks 2, Dallas Stars 8

Away

San Jose Sharks

2

Final

Home

Dallas Stars

8

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 57% of the time.

DAL winsSJS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
SJS013119115247
DAL11131347831

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 9:28DALBrad RichardsPPAssists: Steve Ott, Trevor Daley · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
  2. P2 2:34DALToby PetersenAssists: Karlis Skrastins · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–2
  3. P2 4:30DALBrandon SegalGWGAssists: Nicklas Grossmann, Brenden Morrow · Slap, 0.06 xG0–3
  4. P2 7:46DALBrenden MorrowAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Brandon Segal · Slap, 0.21 xG0–4
  5. P2 18:39SJSDan BoylePPAssists: Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–4
  6. P3 0:51SJSDevin SetoguchiAssists: Patrick Marleau, Ryane Clowe · Slap, 0.06 xG2–4
  7. P3 6:56DALMike RibeiroSHAssists: Loui Eriksson, Trevor Daley · Snap, 0.12 xG2–5
  8. P3 10:02DALBrenden MorrowSHAssists: Mike Ribeiro · Snap, 0.20 xG2–6
  9. P3 12:01DALSteve OttAssists: Brad Richards, Loui Eriksson · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–7
  10. P3 15:53DALMike RibeiroPPAssists: Brad Richards, Brenden Morrow · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–8
Penalties (16)
  1. P1 4:17SJSDevin Setoguchi: High sticking2 min
  2. P1 4:17SJSDevin Setoguchi: High sticking2 min
  3. P1 5:43DALBrenden Morrow: Interference2 min
  4. P1 7:58SJSJoe Thornton: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
  5. P1 12:27DALKrys Barch: Fighting5 min
  6. P1 12:27SJSRyane Clowe: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 3:22DALKrys Barch: Fighting5 min
  8. P2 3:22SJSJay Leach: Fighting5 min
  9. P2 10:59DALStephane Robidas: Boarding5 min
  10. P2 10:59DALStephane Robidas: Game misconduct10 min
  11. P2 13:13SJSRob Blake: Holding2 min
  12. P2 15:46SJSJoe Thornton: Slashing2 min
  13. P2 18:09DALBrian Sutherby: Hooking2 min · PPG
  14. P3 5:53DALMark Fistric: Tripping2 min
  15. P3 9:00DALKrys Barch: Hooking2 min
  16. P3 14:42SJSBrad Staubitz: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

SJS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DAL
43% to win57% to win
← SJS attackDAL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Thornton
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

SJSDAL
47Shots on goal31
3.3Expected goals2.8
80Shot attempts50
40Faceoffs won32
5Power plays5
22Penalty minutes33
26Hits29
9Blocked shots15
14Giveaways17
7Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DAL 2.8 xGSJS 3.3 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DALSJS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 62/100 · #460 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.68 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
SJS 100%5050%50DAL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 57% of the time.

DAL winsSJS wins

Simulated goal difference (DAL − SJS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).