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Ice Lab

Wed, Mar 17, 2010·Prudential Center, Newark

Pittsburgh Penguins 2, New Jersey Devils 5

Away

Pittsburgh Penguins

2

Final

Home

New Jersey Devils

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 54% of the time.

NJD winsPIT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PIT11105110226
NJD292614519

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:01PITChris KunitzAssists: Bill Guerin, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
  2. P1 10:51NJDDainius ZubrusAssists: Patrik Elias · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
  3. P1 18:18NJDPaul MartinUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
  4. P2 3:09NJDPatrik EliasSHGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–3
  5. P2 10:17NJDZach PariseAssists: Travis Zajac, Martin Skoula · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–4
  6. P3 5:23PITRuslan FedotenkoAssists: Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–4
  7. P3 18:47NJDRob NiedermayerENAssists: Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.61 xG2–5
Penalties (5)
  1. P2 1:30NJDDavid Clarkson: Interference2 min
  2. P2 7:39NJDBrian Rolston: Tripping2 min
  3. P3 9:12PITSidney Crosby: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  4. P3 13:31NJDRod Pelley: Boarding5 min
  5. P3 13:31PITKris Letang: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PIT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NJD
43% to win57% to win
← PIT attackNJD attack →
  1. P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Elias
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PITNJD
26Shots on goal19
2.7Expected goals2.5
53Shot attempts31
21Faceoffs won19
3Power plays1
4Penalty minutes9
19Hits15
6Blocked shots15
3Giveaways2
1Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NJD 2.5 xGPIT 2.7 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NJDPIT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 52/100 · #585 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.95 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 39% (winner's lowest chance)
PIT 100%5050%50NJD 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 54% of the time.

NJD winsPIT wins

Simulated goal difference (NJD − PIT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).