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Ice Lab

Wed, Mar 17, 2010·Honda Center, Anaheim

Chicago Blackhawks 2, Anaheim Ducks 4

Away

Chicago Blackhawks

2

Final

Home

Anaheim Ducks

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 58% of the time.

ANA winsCHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CHI11609116241
ANA11419213436

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:08ANABobby RyanAssists: Corey Perry, Ryan Carter · Slap, 0.16 xG0–1
  2. P1 11:16CHIBrent SeabrookAssists: Troy Brouwer, Duncan Keith · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
  3. P2 6:27ANATodd MarchantSHAssists: Kyle Chipchura, Aaron Ward · Snap, 0.13 xG1–2
  4. P3 5:12CHIMarian HossaAssists: Duncan Keith, Patrick Sharp · Deflected, 0.11 xG2–2
  5. P3 14:24ANASaku KoivuGWGAssists: Corey Perry, Lubomir Visnovsky · Slap, 0.05 xG2–3
  6. P3 19:07ANABobby RyanENAssists: James Wisniewski, Jonas Hiller · Slap, 0.58 xG2–4
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 15:36CHIDave Bolland: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 0:00CHIBen Eager: Charging2 min
  3. P2 2:22CHIDuncan Keith: Fighting5 min
  4. P2 2:22ANAJames Wisniewski: Fighting5 min
  5. P2 2:22ANAJames Wisniewski: Charging2 min
  6. P2 2:22CHIDuncan Keith: Holding2 min
  7. P2 6:04ANASheldon Brookbank: Slashing2 min
  8. P2 8:34ANASheldon Brookbank: Cross checking2 min
  9. P3 11:19ANABobby Ryan: Hooking2 min
  10. P3 14:24CHIKris Versteeg: Roughing2 min
  11. P3 14:24ANABrett Festerling: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 19:07ANAJames Wisniewski: Fighting5 min
  13. P3 19:07CHINick Boynton: Fighting5 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ANA
43% to win57% to win
← CHI attackANA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Koivu
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CHIANA
41Shots on goal36
4.4Expected goals3.8
76Shot attempts58
33Faceoffs won26
3Power plays2
18Penalty minutes20
17Hits14
13Blocked shots13
9Giveaways4
5Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ANA 3.8 xGCHI 4.4 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ANACHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 50/100 · #605 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.59 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 47% (winner's lowest chance)
CHI 100%5050%50ANA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +35 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 58% of the time.

ANA winsCHI wins

Simulated goal difference (ANA − CHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).